The loneliest part of the first year, for a lot of us, is the feeling that you’re the only person who has this.
A paper published on 26 September puts a number on that feeling. It’s a big one.
The count
The Global Burden of Disease team estimated that in 2023 the US had 235,610 new cases of pancreatitis. That’s about 645 a day. Another 403,446 people were living with it, and 5,717 died from it.
The paper also cites 2021 figures: a pancreatitis diagnosis appeared on 1.16 million US hospital stays that year, making it the third most common reason for a stay with a digestive diagnosis.
So you’re one of a lot of people. You just don’t see the others, because pancreatitis doesn’t show on the outside.
Why the total keeps climbing
New cases rose 28 percent between 1990 and 2023. Deaths went from 3,137 to 5,717.
But adjust for age and the picture flips. The age-adjusted rate of new cases fell, from about 64 to 51 per 100,000 people. The age-adjusted death rate barely moved. The authors’ reading: there are simply more Americans, and more of them are older. The risk for any one person hasn’t got worse.
The highest rates were in people aged 75 and over, and men carried a bit more of the burden than women.
If you’re caring for an older parent, that last point is worth keeping in mind. Severe pain in the upper belly that goes through to the back, with vomiting, is a hospital trip, at any age.
The drinking question, with numbers
Every one of us gets asked. Even if you’ve never touched a drink, the question comes anyway.
The paper’s own introduction lists the causes of acute pancreatitis: gallstones in about 35 to 40 percent of cases, alcohol in about 30 percent, very high triglycerides in up to 14 percent, and medicines in under 5 percent. In the 2023 US data, high alcohol use accounted for about 16 percent of pancreatitis deaths.
Alcohol is a real cause. It’s also one cause among several, and gallstones beat it.
So when someone looks at you sideways, the numbers are on your side. And whatever your cause, the rule after an attack is the same for all of us: alcohol is zero, every day, for good.
Stepan’s Rule: when I feel like the only one, I remember the number. About 645 new diagnoses a day, in one country. Whoever you are, there’s someone else at that table.
I’m a patient, not a doctor. These are population figures, and your own risk is a conversation for your own team.
Some of those 645 a day end up in the PancreasZen community, usually in their first scary month. If that’s you, come in. The only question we ask at the door is how you’re doing.